Armageddon Days, or: Thoughts about Trump

I received this piece from my email-pal A***, who lives in California:

Hello Avner

It has been a long time since our last communication.

It looks like it has been a hectic time: a lot has occurred. Trump presidency has been full of action. I am sure that you are following the news. He had a lot of problems at the beginning but now it looks like his staff has somewhat stabilized. He has a lot of resistance from many parts of the government, and as you know he is still under investigation, but recently he has been involved in some bold decisions, like the bombing in Syria, and his last action in regards to the negotiation with N. Korea, and his bold act to exit the agreement with Iran. It looks to me that all of this could end very well, for the US and the rest of the world.

So what is new with you? How are you doing at your work? As I understand the feeling in Israel must be very good now. What did you do for the independence day? It appears that Israel economy has been growing very nicely and I wonder what effect this has in the living standard in the country.

In the US the economy has picked up quite nicely, and the employment situation has been better like never before. However, it looks odd, that the salaries  have not been growing, as one would expect, which is a riddle. What is the situation in Israel in this respect?

So I wish you well, and would like to know how are you doing and what is happening is Israel.

(signed)

A***

To which I replied:

Hi A***,

I don't quite share your views about Trump, as well as the situation in Israel. But of course, I may be wrong (note: this is a phrase which is NEVER said by any conservative speaker - which I think is a major part of the problem). If I'm wrong, then I will admit it and will be very happy. As opposed to the speakers from the Right - I'm willing to put specific metrics to this statement.

In brief:

Trump has not yet achieved anything. Iran can only gain from the US exit from the agreement. The improvement of the US economy is mainly thanks to Obama's policy. Economy of this size cannot be turned over by 1.5 years of being in office.

Trump did not really make any difference in Syria - his order to bomb it was very minor. Israel has bombed Syria heavily, but nobody really knows how this will end - but this doesn't prevent the cheer leaders of Netanyahu (who are, at this moment, the entire Jewish population, like a bunch of miserable WWF viewers) to pump his approval rate. I think that he will be remembered as the worst Israeli PM ever - and mind you, there is a tough competition there.

I can't say anything about the future (I live that to the smart asses of the Right), but I can point out the past. Too many times in this region, military campaigns started with great enthusiasm and anticipation - just to end up as catastrophes.

I am doing well at work. The economy is only good for the upper 10% - 20% of Israelis, which includes my family so I shouldn't care. But I do care, because I think that the other 80% also count.

So in short, I foresee a catastrophe, and if I'm proven wrong, I will be very happy.

Take care and hand in there.

Cheers,
Avner E.